New UN Climate Reports Released: What they mean for a Net-Zero future

Two new reports have been released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in advance of COP27 Sharm El-Sheikh that starts in a week’s time. The “2022 NDC Synthesis Report” assesses the various pledges – otherwise known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)- countries have made under the Paris Agreement to reduce their emissions. These NDCs have been made as far forward as 2030. This report found that taking account full implementation of all the commitments in these pledges, emissions are likely to be 10.6% above the 2010 levels by 2030. This stands in stark contrast to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recommendation that emissions need to be reduced by 45% to keep global warming to the Paris Agreement’s goal of no more than 1.5° degrees. While a large gap persists between the estimated 2030 emissions and the IPCC’s recommendation, the 2022 NDC Synthesis Report does show that over the past year countries’ levels of ambition have been improving, but that much more is needed. As an example of what more there is to do, at COP26 in November 2021, countries agreed to submit updated pledges by the end of 2022. Since COP26 24 other countries have done so but New Zealand has not yet. New Zealand’s current NDC has a target of 30% to 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030. While this commitment is an improvement on our last 2030 target, an independent assessment notes that the target is based on misleading accounting methods. This shows in the short term we have more work to do update our 2030 target to ensure we are doing our fair share internationally.

NDCs are complemented by long term long-term low-emission development strategies (LEDS) which look forward to mid-century. The “2022 LEDS Synthesis Report” reviews the various plans that have been submitted by countries. The report notes that most countries’ plans refer to “Net-Zero” emissions. New Zealand’s plan is one of these. But on current LEDS, emissions would only be reduced by 66% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. This indicates a need for countries to continue to set Net-Zero targets, and for countries like New Zealand who already have Net-Zero targets in place to bring forward the year they plan to achieve Net-Zero. New Zealand is also one of the few countries to exclude methane from our Net-Zero target as most other Net-Zero commitments relate to all greenhouse gases. This is another area where improvement is needed in the long term to ensure a truly Net-Zero New Zealand.